Celebrations: Classic Collection Charizard #4: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

Celebrations: Classic Collection Charizard #4 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $430 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 3.1x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $593.50 on May 30, 2026, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

PSA 10

$633.42

Last sale $593.50 on May 30, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$203.84

Last sale $196.49 on May 29, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$290.87

Last sale $399.99 on May 29, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Charizard #4 Celebrations: Classic Collection.

$430

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

3.1x

PSA 10 sells for 3.1x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

Celebrations: Classic Collection #4 Charizard released in 2021 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $430 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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