Celebrations: Classic Collection Umbreon ★ #17: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

On Celebrations: Classic Collection Umbreon ★ #17, the PSA 10 premium is a wide gem-mint premium: PSA 10 sells for 4.2x a PSA 9, a $340 delta. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $449.00 on May 30, 2026, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

PSA 10

$446.30

Last sale $449.00 on May 30, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$106.68

Last sale $127.83 on May 30, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$92.06

Last sale $90.55 on May 28, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Umbreon ★ #17 Celebrations: Classic Collection.

$340

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

4.2x

PSA 10 sells for 4.2x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

Where this card lands in the broader Celebrations: Classic Collection picture: a non-holo with a $340 gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10. The PSA 9 to PSA 10 jump on WOTC-era cards reflects population scarcity at the top grade, not raw print run.

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