SWSH09: Brilliant Stars Charizard V #154: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SWSH09: Brilliant Stars Charizard V #154 shows a meaningful PSA 10 premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $586 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 2.7x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $860.00 on May 31, 2026, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

PSA 10

$933.06

Last sale $860.00 on May 31, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$347.24

Last sale $360.00 on May 29, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$278.44

Last sale $286.00 on May 28, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Charizard V #154 SWSH09: Brilliant Stars.

$586

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

2.7x

PSA 10 sells for 2.7x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SWSH09: Brilliant Stars #154 Charizard V released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $586 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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