Celebrations: Classic Collection Blastoise #2: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

On Celebrations: Classic Collection Blastoise #2, the PSA 10 premium is a wide gem-mint premium: PSA 10 sells for 3.4x a PSA 9, a $1,125 delta. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $7,500.00 on Sep 27, 2025, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

PSA 10

$1,587.56

Last sale $7,500.00 on Sep 27, 2025 UTC

PSA 9

$463.00

Last sale $450.00 on May 28, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$262.14

Last sale $400.00 on May 30, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Blastoise #2 Celebrations: Classic Collection.

$1,125

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

3.4x

PSA 10 sells for 3.4x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

Celebrations: Classic Collection #2 Blastoise released in 2021 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $1,125 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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