SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 Blastoise ex #184: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 Blastoise ex #184 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $120 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 4.5x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $161.25 on May 28, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$154.67

Last sale $161.25 on May 28, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$34.50

Last sale $41.50 on May 28, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$26.71

Last sale $21.50 on May 25, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Blastoise ex #184 SV: Scarlet & Violet 151.

$120

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

4.5x

PSA 10 sells for 4.5x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #184 Blastoise ex released in 2023 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $120 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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