SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 Pidgey #16: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 Pidgey #16 shows one of the widest gaps in vintage WOTC between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $116 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 11.1x. Based on the most recent PSA 10 sale of $127.50 on Mar 15, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$127.50

Last sale $127.50 on Mar 15, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$11.45

Last sale $9.50 on Mar 16, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$9.50

Last sale $9.50 on Mar 16, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Pidgey #16 SV: Scarlet & Violet 151.

$116

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

11.1x

PSA 10 sells for 11.1x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #16 Pidgey released in 2023 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $116 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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