SV: Paldean Fates Pidgey #196: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SV: Paldean Fates Pidgey #196 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $75 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 4x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $89.00 on May 21, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$99.66

Last sale $89.00 on May 21, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$24.99

Last sale $21.99 on May 30, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

—

Limited recent sales tracked. Pull eBay sold comps before acting.

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Pidgey #196 SV: Paldean Fates.

$75

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

PSA 10 sells for 4x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SV: Paldean Fates #196 Pidgey released in 2024 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $75 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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