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SV: Paldean Fates Pikachu 131/91: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

On SV: Paldean Fates Pikachu 131/91, PSA 10 sells for 8x a PSA 9, a $732 delta, which is an unusually wide gem-mint premium. The crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

SV: Paldean Fates Pikachu 131/91
PSA 10
$837.47
PSA 9
$104.98
PSA 8
Limited recent sales tracked. Pull eBay sold comps before acting.

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Pikachu 131/91 (SV: Paldean Fates).

$732
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
8x
PSA 10 sells for 8x a PSA 9

The Cross-Grade Read

Where this card sits across grade tiers, and against its own set.

Grade-Tier Spread
Raw to PSA 9 $17 (19.9%)
PSA 9 to PSA 10 $732 (698%)
Raw to PSA 10 $750 (857%)
Set-Wide Cross-Grade Spread
8x
This card, PSA 10 to PSA 9
#18 of 184
Approx. widest-gap rank in SV: Paldean Fates
3.6x
SV: Paldean Fates median gap

At 8x, the gem-mint premium on this card is an unusually wide gap versus the SV: Paldean Fates median of 3.6x, approximately the 18th-widest gem-mint gap of 184 priced SV: Paldean Fates cards.

Dealer Read

The grade is doing the heavy lifting on price here: a PSA 10 trades at 8x a PSA 9. It ranks approximately 18th of 184 in the set for gem-mint spread, an unusually wide gap against the 3.6x median.

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9

Where this card lands in the broader SV: Paldean Fates picture: a modern-era card carrying a $732 gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10, an 8x multiple on the PSA 9 price.

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