Base Set Machoke #34: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
Base Set Machoke #34 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $116 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 3.7x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $134.99 on May 18, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$159.75
Last sale $134.99 on
PSA 9
$43.50
Last sale $46.00 on
PSA 8
$34.76
Last sale $35.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Machoke #34 Base Set.
$116
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3.7x
PSA 10 sells for 3.7x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Base Set #34 Machoke released in 1999 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $116 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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