Base Set Charizard #4: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

Should you crack a 9 and resub for a 10? Here's the real math.

PSA 10

$30,100.00

Last sale $30,100.00 on May 4, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$3,388.54

Last sale $3,151.00 on May 4, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$1,308.10

Last sale $1,365.00 on May 4, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 gap on Base Set Charizard is one of the largest in the hobby.

$26,711

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

8.9x

PSA 10 sells for 8.9x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

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