Base Set Charizard #4: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

Base Set Charizard #4 shows one of the widest gaps in vintage WOTC between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $26,679 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 8.8x. the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

PSA 10

$30,100.00

PSA 9

$3,420.67

PSA 8

—

Limited recent sales tracked. Pull eBay sold comps before acting.

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Charizard #4 Base Set.

$26,679

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

8.8x

PSA 10 sells for 8.8x a PSA 9

The Cross-Grade Read

Where this card sits across grade tiers, and against its own set.

Grade-Tier Spread

Raw to PSA 9 $3,002 (718%)

PSA 9 to PSA 10 $26,679 (780%)

Raw to PSA 10 $29,682 (7,095%)

Set-Wide Cross-Grade Arbitrage

8.8x

This card, PSA 10 to PSA 9

#8 of 94

Approx. widest-gap rank in Base Set

3.6x

Base Set median gap

At 8.8x, the gem-mint premium on this card is an unusually wide gap versus the Base Set median of 3.6x, approximately the 8th-widest gem-mint gap of 94 priced Base Set cards.

Dealer Read

The grade is doing the heavy lifting on price here: a PSA 10 trades at 8.8x a PSA 9. It ranks approximately 8th of 94 in the set for gem-mint spread, an unusually wide gap against the 3.6x median.

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

Base Set #4 Charizard Holo released in 1999 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $26,679 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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