Base Set 2 Charizard #4: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
Base Set 2 Charizard #4 shows one of the widest gaps in vintage WOTC between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $10,344 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 7.2x. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $12,000.00 on Jul 1, 2025, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.
PSA 10
$12,000.00
Last sale $12,000.00 on
PSA 9
$1,656.20
Last sale $1,551.01 on
PSA 8
$744.89
Last sale $719.50 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Charizard #4 Base Set 2.
$10,344
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
7.2x
PSA 10 sells for 7.2x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Base Set 2 #4 Charizard Holo released in 2000 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $10,344 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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