SWSH12: Silver Tempest Lugia VSTAR #202: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SWSH12: Silver Tempest Lugia VSTAR #202 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $110 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 3.5x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $151.00 on May 30, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$154.73

Last sale $151.00 on May 30, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$44.39

Last sale $45.00 on May 28, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$33.53

Last sale $32.99 on May 22, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Lugia VSTAR #202 SWSH12: Silver Tempest.

$110

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

3.5x

PSA 10 sells for 3.5x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SWSH12: Silver Tempest #202 Lugia VSTAR released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $110 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

More Lugia Comparisons

Other SWSH12: Silver Tempest Heavy Hitters

Track every grade tier. Spot every gap.

Real PSA prices across every grade tier. Founding member rate $3.99/mo locked forever. First 100 only.

Claim founding member rate

First 100 only. Founding member rate $3.99/mo locked forever.