SWSH11: Lost Origin Dark Patch 216/196: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on SWSH11: Lost Origin Dark Patch 216/196 is a meaningful PSA 10 premium: $15, with PSA 10 copies trading at 2.1x a PSA 9. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $28.56 on Feb 26, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$28.56
Last sale $28.56 on
PSA 9
$13.68
Last sale $13.68 on
PSA 8
$9.99
Last sale $9.99 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Dark Patch 216/196 (SWSH11: Lost Origin).
$15
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
2.1x
PSA 10 sells for 2.1x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH11: Lost Origin 216/196 Dark Patch is a modern-era release from 2022. The gap between its PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices is $15.
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