SWSH11: Lost Origin Giratina V #186: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on SWSH11: Lost Origin Giratina V #186 is a wide gem-mint premium: $2,297, with PSA 10 copies trading at 3.7x a PSA 9. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $3,300.00 on May 29, 2026, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.
PSA 10
$3,142.90
Last sale $3,300.00 on
PSA 9
$846.28
Last sale $798.89 on
PSA 8
$717.68
Last sale $774.50 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Giratina V #186 SWSH11: Lost Origin.
$2,297
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3.7x
PSA 10 sells for 3.7x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH11: Lost Origin #186 Giratina V released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $2,297 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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