SWSH11: Lost Origin Box of Disaster 214/196: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
SWSH11: Lost Origin Box of Disaster 214/196 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $40 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 3x. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $60.00 on May 10, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$60.00
Last sale $60.00 on
PSA 9
$20.00
Last sale $20.00 on
PSA 8
$5.75
Last sale $5.75 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Box of Disaster 214/196 (SWSH11: Lost Origin).
$40
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3x
PSA 10 sells for 3x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH11: Lost Origin 214/196 Box of Disaster is a modern-era release from 2022. The gap between its PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices is $40.
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