SWSH11: Lost Origin Fantina #206: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
On SWSH11: Lost Origin Fantina #206, the PSA 10 premium is a modest premium: PSA 10 sells for 1.5x a PSA 9, a $13 delta. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $44.99 on May 26, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$37.75
Last sale $44.99 on
PSA 9
$24.99
Last sale $24.99 on
PSA 8
$12.60
Last sale $12.60 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Fantina #206 SWSH11: Lost Origin.
$13
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
1.5x
PSA 10 sells for 1.5x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH11: Lost Origin #206 Fantina released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $13 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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