SWSH11: Lost Origin Arezu 204/196: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on SWSH11: Lost Origin Arezu 204/196 is a meaningful PSA 10 premium: $21, with PSA 10 copies trading at 2.4x a PSA 9. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $40.00 on Oct 14, 2025, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$35.70
Last sale $40.00 on
PSA 9
$15.00
Last sale $15.00 on
PSA 8
$10.35
Last sale $8.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Arezu 204/196 (SWSH11: Lost Origin).
$21
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
2.4x
PSA 10 sells for 2.4x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH11: Lost Origin 204/196 Arezu is a modern-era release from 2022. The gap between its PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices is $21.
More Arezu Comparisons
Other SWSH11: Lost Origin Heavy Hitters
Track every grade tier. Spot every gap.
Real PSA prices across every grade tier. Free during beta.
Get Free Beta AccessFounding Member Cohort · Limited to the First 100 Members.