SWSH11: Lost Origin Pidgeot V #188: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
On SWSH11: Lost Origin Pidgeot V #188, the PSA 10 premium is a meaningful PSA 10 premium: PSA 10 sells for 2.1x a PSA 9, a $38 delta. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $74.99 on May 27, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$71.63
Last sale $74.99 on
PSA 9
$34.11
Last sale $34.11 on
PSA 8
$13.00
Last sale $13.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Pidgeot V #188 SWSH11: Lost Origin.
$38
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
2.1x
PSA 10 sells for 2.1x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH11: Lost Origin #188 Pidgeot V released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $38 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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