SWSH11: Lost Origin Hisuian Goodra VSTAR #136: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SWSH11: Lost Origin Hisuian Goodra VSTAR #136 shows one of the widest gaps in vintage WOTC between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $34 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 7.2x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $39.84 on May 4, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

SWSH11: Lost Origin Hisuian Goodra VSTAR #136 Holo

PSA 10

$39.84

Last sale $39.84 on May 4, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$5.50

Last sale $5.50 on Nov 6, 2025 UTC

PSA 8

$7.16

Last sale $7.16 on Apr 4, 2026 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Hisuian Goodra VSTAR #136 SWSH11: Lost Origin.

$34

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

7.2x

PSA 10 sells for 7.2x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SWSH11: Lost Origin #136 Hisuian Goodra VSTAR Holo released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $34 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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