SWSH11: Lost Origin Drapion V #118: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

SWSH11: Lost Origin Drapion V #118 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $21 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 3.1x. Based on the most recent PSA 10 sale of $31.00 on Apr 14, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$31.00

Last sale $31.00 on Apr 14, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$9.87

Last sale $7.50 on Dec 9, 2025 UTC

PSA 8

—

Limited recent sales tracked. Pull eBay sold comps before acting.

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Drapion V #118 SWSH11: Lost Origin.

$21

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

3.1x

PSA 10 sells for 3.1x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SWSH11: Lost Origin #118 Drapion V Holo released in 2022 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $21 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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