SWSH09: Brilliant Stars Ultra Ball 186/172: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on SWSH09: Brilliant Stars Ultra Ball 186/172 is a modest premium: $21, with PSA 10 copies trading at 1.7x a PSA 9. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $55.00 on Apr 14, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$51.00
Last sale $55.00 on
PSA 9
$30.00
Last sale $30.00 on
PSA 8
$14.96
Last sale $25.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Ultra Ball 186/172 (SWSH09: Brilliant Stars).
$21
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
1.7x
PSA 10 sells for 1.7x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH09: Brilliant Stars 186/172 Ultra Ball is a modern-era release from 2022. The gap between its PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices is $21.
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