SWSH07: Evolving Skies Psyduck #24: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on SWSH07: Evolving Skies Psyduck #24 is a modest premium: -$7, with PSA 10 copies trading at 0.8x a PSA 9. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $62.00 on Aug 10, 2024, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$34.99
Last sale $62.00 on
PSA 9
$41.50
Last sale $43.00 on
PSA 8
$20.00
Last sale $20.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Psyduck #24 SWSH07: Evolving Skies.
-$7
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
0.8x
PSA 10 sells for 0.8x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH07: Evolving Skies #24 Psyduck released in 2021 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above -$7 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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