SWSH07: Evolving Skies Trevenant VMAX #206: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

On SWSH07: Evolving Skies Trevenant VMAX #206, the PSA 10 premium is a wide gem-mint premium: PSA 10 sells for 3.9x a PSA 9, a $34 delta. Based on the most recent PSA 10 sale of $64.99 on Apr 30, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$45.33

Last sale $64.99 on Apr 30, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$11.75

Last sale $10.00 on Mar 9, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$14.00

Last sale $10.50 on Nov 17, 2023 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Trevenant VMAX #206 SWSH07: Evolving Skies.

$34

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

3.9x

PSA 10 sells for 3.9x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SWSH07: Evolving Skies #206 Trevenant VMAX released in 2021 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $34 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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