SWSH07: Evolving Skies Noivern V #196: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
SWSH07: Evolving Skies Noivern V #196 shows a wide gem-mint premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $218 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 3.6x. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $399.99 on May 30, 2026, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.
PSA 10
$301.96
Last sale $399.99 on
PSA 9
$84.42
Last sale $99.99 on
PSA 8
$59.53
Last sale $59.53 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Noivern V #196 SWSH07: Evolving Skies.
$218
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3.6x
PSA 10 sells for 3.6x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
SWSH07: Evolving Skies #196 Noivern V released in 2021 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $218 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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