SV03: Obsidian Flames Dragonair #158: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

On SV03: Obsidian Flames Dragonair #158, the PSA 10 premium is one of the widest gaps in vintage WOTC: PSA 10 sells for 5.6x a PSA 9, a $70 delta. Based on the most recent PSA 10 sale of $85.00 on Apr 19, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.

PSA 10

$85.00

Last sale $85.00 on Apr 19, 2026 UTC

PSA 9

$15.11

Last sale $30.00 on Jan 5, 2026 UTC

PSA 8

$5.00

Last sale $5.00 on Sep 16, 2024 UTC

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Dragonair #158 SV03: Obsidian Flames.

$70

Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10

5.6x

PSA 10 sells for 5.6x a PSA 9

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

PSA 9 acquisition cost ($)

PSA resub cost ($)

Probability of each outcome (must total 100%)

PSA 10 (upgrade) 15%

PSA 9 (regrade) 70%

PSA 8 (downgrade) 15%

Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.

PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0

PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0

PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0

Expected Value

Math favors holding the 9

SV03: Obsidian Flames #158 Dragonair released in 2023 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $70 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.

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