Shining Fates Kyogre #21: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on Shining Fates Kyogre #21 is a wide gem-mint premium: $72, with PSA 10 copies trading at 4.4x a PSA 9. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $94.00 on May 31, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$92.96
Last sale $94.00 on
PSA 9
$21.07
Last sale $22.50 on
PSA 8
$16.63
Last sale $19.99 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Kyogre #21 Shining Fates.
$72
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
4.4x
PSA 10 sells for 4.4x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Where this card lands in the broader Shining Fates picture: a non-holo with a $72 gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10. The PSA 9 to PSA 10 jump on WOTC-era cards reflects population scarcity at the top grade, not raw print run.
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