Neo Genesis Xatu #52: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
Neo Genesis Xatu #52 shows a meaningful PSA 10 premium between PSA 9 and PSA 10: a $31 dollar gap, with the gem mint multiplier at 2.7x. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $30.00 on May 14, 2023, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$49.38
Last sale $30.00 on
PSA 9
$18.00
Last sale $18.00 on
PSA 8
$14.39
Last sale $20.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Xatu #52 Neo Genesis.
$31
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
2.7x
PSA 10 sells for 2.7x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Neo Genesis #52 Xatu released in 2000 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $31 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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