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Jungle Vaporeon 12/64: PSA 9 vs PSA 10

The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on Jungle Vaporeon 12/64 is an unusually wide gem-mint premium: $5,806, with PSA 10 copies trading at 20x a PSA 9. The crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.

Jungle Vaporeon 12/64 Holo
PSA 10
$6,112.00
PSA 9
$306.25
PSA 8
Limited recent sales tracked. Pull eBay sold comps before acting.

The Spread

The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Vaporeon 12/64 (Jungle).

$5,806
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
20x
PSA 10 sells for 20x a PSA 9

The Cross-Grade Read

Where this card sits across grade tiers, and against its own set.

Grade-Tier Spread
Raw to PSA 9 $289 (1,649%)
PSA 9 to PSA 10 $5,806 (1,896%)
Raw to PSA 10 $6,094 (34,806%)
Set-Wide Cross-Grade Spread
20x
This card, PSA 10 to PSA 9
#3 of 46
Approx. widest-gap rank in Jungle
4.8x
Jungle median gap

At 20x, the gem-mint premium on this card is an unusually wide gap versus the Jungle median of 4.8x, approximately the 3rd-widest gem-mint gap of 46 priced Jungle cards.

Dealer Read

The grade is doing the heavy lifting on price here: a PSA 10 trades at 20x a PSA 9. It ranks approximately 3rd of 46 in the set for gem-mint spread, an unusually wide gap against the 4.8x median.

Three-Outcome EV Calculator

15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition) $0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade) $0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital) $0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9

Jungle 12/64 Vaporeon Holo is a WOTC-era release from 1999. The gap between its PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices is $5,806.

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