Base Set Bulbasaur #44: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
On Base Set Bulbasaur #44, the PSA 10 premium is one of the widest gaps in vintage WOTC: PSA 10 sells for 7.6x a PSA 9, a $292 delta. Based on a recent PSA 10 sale of $325.00 on May 29, 2026, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.
PSA 10
$336.24
Last sale $325.00 on
PSA 9
$44.06
Last sale $44.00 on
PSA 8
$38.56
Last sale $42.67 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Bulbasaur #44 Base Set.
$292
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
7.6x
PSA 10 sells for 7.6x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Base Set #44 Bulbasaur released in 1999 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $292 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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