Base Set 2 Nidoran ♂ 83/130: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
On Base Set 2 Nidoran ♂ 83/130, PSA 10 sells for 3.5x a PSA 9, a $28 delta, which is a wide gem-mint premium. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $39.99 on Nov 29, 2024, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$39.99
Last sale $39.99 on
PSA 9
$11.50
Last sale $11.50 on
PSA 8
$12.37
Last sale $12.37 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Nidoran ♂ 83/130 (Base Set 2).
$28
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3.5x
PSA 10 sells for 3.5x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Where this card lands in the broader Base Set 2 picture: a WOTC-era card carrying a $28 gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10, a 3.5x multiple on the PSA 9 price.
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