Base Set 2 Caterpie #68: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
On Base Set 2 Caterpie #68, the PSA 10 premium is a wide gem-mint premium: PSA 10 sells for 3.1x a PSA 9, a $36 delta. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $52.72 on Jan 2, 2026, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$52.72
Last sale $52.72 on
PSA 9
$17.16
Last sale $16.50 on
PSA 8
$11.63
Last sale $11.63 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Caterpie #68 Base Set 2.
$36
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3.1x
PSA 10 sells for 3.1x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Base Set 2 #68 Caterpie released in 2000 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $36 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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