Base Set 2 Lickitung #48: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
The PSA 10 to PSA 9 spread on Base Set 2 Lickitung #48 is a wide gem-mint premium: $39, with PSA 10 copies trading at 3x a PSA 9. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $116.18 on Jul 30, 2025, the math leans toward holding the 9: expected value turns negative at conservative upgrade probabilities once the resub fee is in.
PSA 10
$58.99
Last sale $116.18 on
PSA 9
$19.50
Last sale $19.50 on
PSA 8
—
Limited recent sales tracked. Pull eBay sold comps before acting.
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Lickitung #48 Base Set 2.
$39
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
3x
PSA 10 sells for 3x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Base Set 2 #48 Lickitung released in 2000 sits in the vintage WOTC tier where gem-mint premiums above $39 are common. PSA 10 populations shrink faster than supply on cards of this era, which is why the upgrade arbitrage stays alive.
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