Base Set 2 Nidoking 11/130: PSA 9 vs PSA 10
On Base Set 2 Nidoking 11/130, PSA 10 sells for 5.4x a PSA 9, a $655 delta, which is an unusually wide gem-mint premium. Based on the last tracked PSA 10 sale of $16.50 on Aug 27, 2023, the crack-and-resub math favors the resub: expected value is positive even at a conservative 15% upgrade probability.
PSA 10
$805.00
Last sale $16.50 on
PSA 9
$149.99
Last sale $149.99 on
PSA 8
$67.23
Last sale $55.00 on
The Spread
The PSA 9 to PSA 10 spread on Nidoking 11/130 (Base Set 2).
$655
Dollar gap, PSA 9 to PSA 10
5.4x
PSA 10 sells for 5.4x a PSA 9
Three-Outcome EV Calculator
15%
70%
15%
Defaults are conservative starting points. Adjust based on the specific slab. A borderline 9 with strong centering plays differently than a 9 with edge wear.
PSA 10 outcome (sale price minus resub minus acquisition)
$0
PSA 9 outcome (regrade, no upgrade)
$0
PSA 8 outcome (downgrade, slower sell, tied capital)
$0
Expected Value
$0
Math favors holding the 9
Where this card lands in the broader Base Set 2 picture: a WOTC-era holo carrying a $655 gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10, a 5.4x multiple on the PSA 9 price.
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